Laura Kettel

About me

I am a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of Political Science at Aarhus University, working at the intersection of political economy, political institutions, and political behavior. Previously, I was a Fox International Fellow at Yale University (2021–2022). I received my PhD from the Department of Political Science at Freie Universität Berlin in 2023.

My work is organized around a core question: how institutional arrangements and market risks jointly shape policy outcomes and political behavior. I pursue two main lines of research. The first examines how political institutions shape policy outputs, with a focus on housing, homelessness governance, and the production of spatial inequality. The second studies how exposure to market risks, particularly in housing and energy markets, affects political attitudes and democratic satisfaction. Methodologically, I use causal inference with observational data, complemented by survey experiments and qualitative data that I transform into structured data for analysis. My work has been published in Perspectives on Politics and The Urban Affairs Review.

Current work

Book Project

Crisis by Design: How the US designed a system that can’t solve homelessness. Under Review.

Peer-reviewed Publications

• Reassessing the Impact of Local Control: When Smaller Local Governments Permit More Housing
  Perspectives on Politics (2025)
  DOI: 10.1017/S1537592725000799

  Abstract

  Housing scarcity is a widespread social and economic problem. Prior studies have attributed this scarcity to local control over land use, which has been seen as making policy makers more responsive to small electorates. Challenging this argument, we suggest that smaller jurisdictions have stronger incentives and greater capacity to raise tax revenue by building housing. Therefore, expanding the electorate that policy makers are responsive to could lead to a more restrictive housing policy. To explore this question empirically, we study a reform that consolidated some Danish municipalities, increasing the size of their jurisdiction. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that consolidated municipalities issue fewer permits and complete less housing than smaller jurisdictions. Our study thus shows that politicians permitted more housing when they were accountable to a smaller electorate. This upends conventional wisdom and suggests that local control need not be at odds with more liberal land use policy.

• A Tale of Two Crises: Urban Homelessness Policy during Covid-19
  Urban Affairs Review (2024)
  DOI: 10780874241279762

  Abstract

  At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the situation of people experiencing homelessness, and what communities could do to protect this vulnerable subpopulation, emerged as an area of particular concern. People experiencing homelessness are both less likely to be able to self-isolate and more likely to suffer a severe case of Covid-19. To date, however, research on local targeted responses remains limited. This study fills a critical gap by providing the most extensive dataset to date on policy responses targeting homelessness during the pandemic. I analyze local policy responses across 254 U.S. communities, offering insights into the diversity and prevalence of measures implemented. The analysis suggests that variation in local responses is shaped by contextual factors, highlighting how the localized governance of homelessness exacerbates spatial inequalities in the absence of federal guidance.

Working papers

Energy Burden and Satisfaction with Democracy: The Political Consequences of Market Risk in Germany (with J. Sophia Wang).
Revise & Resubmit.

Abstract

Recent years have seen steep increases in energy costs for households. To date, research on the political consequences of this emergent risk is limited. To explore this relationship for the context of Germany, we leverage an instrumental variable design, drawing on zipcode level data on energy prices, household expenditures, and individual political attitudes. We present causal evidence that rising energy costs contribute to decreased satisfaction with democracy (SWD). We argue theoretically and show empirically that the effect is driven by a pocketbook mechanism. By centering the consequences of household energy cost, we contribute to existing lines of research investigating the relationship between perceptions of economic well-being and SWD for the specific context of energy markets. The political implications of rising energy prices will likely become increasingly salient in the future, as governments tackle the challenge of designing socially just energy transition policies.

The Political Calculus of Land-Use Reform
Under Review.

Abstract

Institutional design plays a central role in shaping when policymakers are willing to pursue reforms, especially in local contexts where the political costs of action are high. Theoretically, institutional reform can reshape the incentives of local decision makers to address collective problems. Housing policy provides a hard test of this logic: despite widespread recognition of an affordability crisis, entrenched local political pressures block land-use reform. This paper examines how changes to fiscal autonomy can alter these dynamics, focusing on a state-level program in Massachusetts providing municipalities with financial support for zoning reform. Using synthetic control and difference-in-differences designs, I show the policy produced measurable increases in housing permits. Event history analysis reveals that adoption was concentrated in jurisdictions predisposed toward growth. I argue the program’s effectiveness derived from its capacity to enhance fiscal capacity and reduce the perceived political costs of development, thereby reshaping local policymakers’ incentives.

Under Pressure: Household Energy Costs and Political Behavior

Abstract

Household energy prices have emerged as a central channel through which citizens experience contemporary economic uncertainty amid geopolitical shocks and the green transition. Yet we know little about whether these costs shape political attitudes and voting behavior, and through what channels. This paper investigates the political consequences of energy-price salience in Germany, focusing on the mechanisms through which citizens translate cost signals into evaluations of democratic performance. Drawing on granular local energy price data to measure shock exposure between federal elections, as well as original survey data (N = 3000) and a preregistered survey experiment, I show that exposure to information about rising energy costs produces moderate but statistically meaningful declines in SWD. Probing mechanisms, I find that beyond immediate pocketbook concerns, respondents extrapolate from energy-price signals to the broader economy, expressing diffuse insecurity about the future. These patterns highlight how seemingly narrow household cost pressures can spill over into system-level evaluations, underscoring the importance of managing consumer-facing costs to sustain democratic support during the energy transition.

Keeping Out the Huddled Masses: Refugees and Social Housing (with Karoline Kolstad and Martin Vinæs).

Abstract

The welfare-magnet hypothesis holds that generous welfare provision attracts migrants, and that immigrants subsequently impose fiscal pressure on host societies. While empirical support for welfare-driven migration remains mixed, the belief that welfare generosity attracts migrants is highly salient among policymakers and the public. Shifting the focus from migrant decision-making to political elites, this paper asks: How do local governments adjust welfare provision when refugee arrivals increase pressure on publicly provided goods? We examine the case of Denmark in the 1990s, when large refugee inflows were allocated quasi-randomly across municipalities. Using variation in exposure to refugee placement, we leverage a shift-share instrument to compare municipalities above versus below median inflow. Municipalities react to high refugee inflows by reducing investment in social housing. Importantly, this response did not simply reflect satiation or fiscal distress: social spending remained stable, and treated municipalities reduced taxes, suggesting that municipalities strategically sought to appease native residents and attract more economically desirable newcomers. These patterns suggest that local elites respond to refugee-driven pressure by retrenching social housing and restructuring local tax policy, reshaping the welfare state where inflows strain publicly provided goods.